Wide Receiver Per Target Stats 2010

We here at the NFL Minds Blog thought that it would be a good idea to evaluate wide receivers on a per target basis. It would be an awful idea to evaluate a WR solely on a per target basis, and you’ll see why later in the article. But overall, comparing wide receivers on a per target basis gives us a better idea of how efficient a wide receiver was with his opportunities. It’s a good way to see whose stats were inflated by a high amount of targets, and whose stats were deflated by a low amount of targets. This will help us in predicting the stats for the 2011 receivers, and it will certainly help us try to pick out break-out receivers for the 2011 season. We will better be able to see what wide receivers would have done with the same amount of targets as others, like Kenny Britt to Roddy White. While the disparity in targets was over 100, Britt made more of his targets than White (and pretty much any other wide receiver). We would say Britt will be a breakout WR in 2011, but with the recent arrest, it seems like he needs to get his act together off the field first. But anyway, at the end of this post, we’ll be able to say “So that’s what so-and –so would have done (approximately obvi) with more targets”. And with this information, we’ll better be able to predict 2011 stats and break-out players. Good for fantasy football!

You should know what a target is, but if you don’t, we’ll define it for you: A target for a WR is a pass that was intended for a specific player”. A target can end up as a completion or incompletion. So anyway, we got the target stats from footballoutsiders.com. After, we were able to calculate per target stats for our wide receivers. For this experiment, we’re only using wide recievers with more than 90 targets (which is not a lot at all). However, you’ll see in the 2^nd table, that we listed some notable wide receivers with less than 90. This is in a separate table though, because it would be unfair to compare someone with 64 targets to someone with 175. The sample sizes are not truly comparable.

After we calculated our per target stats, we multiplied them x 100. We did this because it will be easier to read and compare. This provides an easy comparison. So you can get some sort of context, 100 targets is a good amount but not too many. You would expect a real, legitimate #1 WR to get 130+ targets, and some even 175+ like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White. Anyway, some wide receivers that had approximately 100 targets last year were Derrick Mason (100), Johnny Knox (100), Braylon Edwards (101), Michael Crabtree (100), Mike Wallace (98), Steve Smith (99). So this just provides you with some context to see exactly what 100 targets mean. So without further ado, here is Table #1:

2010 - Minimum 90 targets, per 100 target stats, sorted by yards:

Name	Team	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Mike Wallace	PIT	61	1,283	10
DeSean Jackson	PHI	49	1,100	6.3
Mario Manningham	NYG	65	1,026	9.8
Greg Jennings	GB	61	1,012	9.6
Johnny Knox	CHI	51	960	5
Brandon Lloyd	DEN	51	953	7
Braylon Edwards	NYJ	52	895	6.9
Deion Branch	NE	66	889	6.5
Andre Johnson	HOU	63	875	5.8
Miles Austin	DAL	58	875	5.9
Dwayne Bowe	KC	54	874	11
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	61	838	8.7
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	62	823	8.6
Calvin Johnson	DET	57	812	8.7
Lance Moore	NO	70	812	8.5
Mike Thomas	JAC	66	812	3.9
Derrick Mason	BAL	61	802	7
Hines Ward	PIT	64	799	5.3
Percy Harvin	MIN	65	799	4.6
Jabar Gaffney	DEN	58	781	8.2
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	54	777	6.2
Kevin Walter	HOU	64	776	6.2
Marques Colston	NO	64	775	5.3
Reggie Wayne	IND	63	774	3.4
Roddy White	ATL	64	772	5.6
Santana Moss	WAS	64	769	4.1
Anquan Boldin	BAL	59	768	6.4
Steve Johnson	BUF	58	756	7
Mike Williams	TB	50	753	8.6
Michael Crabtree	SF	55	741	6
Brandon Marshall	MIA	59	716	2
Terrell Owens	CIN	52	707	6.5
Mike Williams	SEA	59	683	1.8
Brandon Gibson	STL	58	681	2.2
Wes Welker	NE	69	680	5.6
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	52	661	3.5
Pierre Garcon	IND	56	669	5
Chad Ochocinco	CIN	53	659	3.2
Davone Bess	MIA	63	648	4
Eddie Royal	DEN	57	609	2.8
Danny Amendola	STL	69	560	2.4
Steve Smith	CAR	46	560	2

And now onto Table #2. These are just some notable wide receivers who had under 90 targets.

2010 - Other Notable WRs under 90 targets:

Player	Team	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Kenny Britt	TEN	58	1,062	12
Anthony Armstrong	WAS	51	1,015	3.5
Robert Meachem	NO	67	967	7.6
Malcolm Floyd	SD	48	931	7.8
Austin Collie	IND	82	914	11
Jordy Nelson	GB	70	909	3.1
Jordan Shipley	CIN	70	811	4
Lois Murphy	OAK	53	781	2.6
Dez Bryant	DAL	62	768	8.2
Steve Smith	NYG	64	705	4
Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	53	696	8.7
Donald Driver	GB	61	673	4.8
Devin Hester	CHI	55	651	5.5
Randy Moss	TEN	44	623	9.5

Big Play Wide Receivers

Of course the deep play wide receivers have an advantage in per target stats because of their ability to create big plays at any time. These wide receivers are solely big play guys, and so their yard stats are inflated by big plays. As you can see, they don’t have a large amount of receptions. And, as you know, these WRs can be considered Top 10, but I have a hard time putting them in the top 5 because of their lack of complete skillset. After all, there is a reason Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson were targeted 98 and 96 times respectively. And that’s because they aren’t open as much as a Roddy White or Reggie Wayne, and they just aren’t as dependable. Wallace, Jackson, etc – their routes consist of deep go’s, and because of this they are only going to be targeted when they “have a step” or “beat their man”. So this is why their per target stats are inflated. Don’t make the mistake of thinking they are top 5 WRs.

A Quarterback’s Impact on Per Target Stats

This is a major flaw – that is, per target stats do not at all separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other. Look no further than Austin Collie and Larry Fitzgerald to see that. Austin Collie, who has Peyton Manning throwing to him, would catch 82/100 targets. Manning’s accurate and crisp passes may have a thing or to do with this. Still though, let’s not take everything away from Collie – He was tremendous when active. As for Fitz, who had the unfortunate task of trying to catch inaccurate and sometime uncatchable passes from the revolving door situation that the Cardinals possessed, would only catch 52/100. The problem is, the Cardinals often forced the ball to Fitz because it was their only option. Often times he wasn’t open at all, and the passes were not in the correct spots. Overall, per target stats can be severely affected by the QB throwing the passes because of accuracy and decision making.

Stats Inflated by High Amount of Targets

As I mentioned in the beginning, we will be able to see which WRs stats’ were inflated by a high amount of targets. And now we can: Brandon Lloyd, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Mike Williams (TB), etc. Maybe “inflated” isn’t the right word. But overall, these guys were targeted more than they should have been. I’m not saying Roddy White should only be targeted 100 times, but perhaps one or two less per game.

Stats Deflated by Low Amount of Targets

As I mentioned in the beginning, we will be able to see which WRs stats’ were deflated by a low amount of targets. And now we can: Mario Manningham, Jabar Gaffney, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Kenny Britt, Malcolm Floyd, Jordy Nelson, etc. Again, you don’t have to use the word “deflated”. Looking back though, it probably would have been wise for these guys to have been targeted 1 or 2 more times per game.

Predicting 2011 Breakout WRs Based Off This

If Kenny Britt can get his act together – that’s a YES. Britt had Randy Moss marveling over his talent and upside. Kerry Collins said “Britt is the most talented WR I’ve ever played with”. This guy is getting rave reviews from everyone. His talent is immense. The two problems with Britt are as follows: (1) The QB situation in Tennessee. Jake Locker’s not an NFL ready QB, but he may be forced in too early because it appears as if Vince Young will be dealt. This will be a killer for Britt, but he can still put up decent stats. (2) Possible suspension / not caring / lack of professionalism. Again, Britt has all the talent in the world, it’s just a matter if he can put it all together or not. I think he’ll have a decent year because of these issues.

Mario Manningham had probably the 2^nd best per target stats in 2010. He will have a breakout year! Steve Smith is coming off knee surgery and may miss time. Manningham is entering a contract year and was extremely effective with his targets in 2010, as indicated by these stats. I’m expecting a big year for Manningham in 2011 with the added targets he’ll get as the #2 option on the Giants.

Austin Collie is destined to have a big year, as long as he stays healthy. His per target stats in 2010 were very good, he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, and he is a talented slot receiver. The only problem is concussions. One more and Collie is in trouble.

Robert Meachem made the most out of his targets in 2010, as did Lance Moore. I like both of these WRs for 2011. They problem is, there just isn’t enough balls to go around in New Orleans for everyone to have huge years. I do, however, like Meachem specifically to have a breakout 2011 campaign.

Jordy Nelson is going to have a breakout 2011 year. His per target stats were better than Donald Driver’s last year, so he could easily be the #2 option for Rodgers in 2011. Driver, although the #2 WR, is basically done and James Jones is a FA, so Nelson could have a big year in a high powered offense. We saw what he could do in the Super Bowl.

Dez Bryant’s per target numbers were especially good for a rookie. The best of any rookie WR, even better than Mike Williams. With Tony Romo returning, a year of experience, and a whole lot of talent, Dez Bryant will surely make 2011 a breakout season.

Jabar Gaffney is worth taking a chance late in fantasy drafts for the 2011 season. The stats indicate that he was very efficient in 2010, and with Josh McDaniels gone, the Broncos will no longer need to keep forcing the ball to Brandon Lloyd which you can clearly see they did based on his per target stats.

Anyway, thanks for reading. Hope you enjoyed this and took a little something out of it, and hopefully you learned a little bit. Don’t forget to follow us on twitter. Thank you!